While a trading edge must be scientifically verified. It must be a strategy that is quantifiable. Something that is not merely a product of a trader’s personal interpretation only. It must be based on solid rules and guidelines that anyone else can verify.
But as time passes and you begin to understand yourself and the market, you create your own trading style. Depending on the path you chose and the experiences you had traders fall into two categories. Discretionary traders or otherwise.
Successful trading is more of an art than science. That is certainly true for a vast majority of traders. Any edge that can be put down as an algorithm, don’t need a trader.
There is a setup on EUR/NZD H1 chart.
The following chart shows Setup 1 long on the cross of EUR/NZD.
Its suggesting that there is a possibility that price might break above the box to the up side. there is a 33% chance that it might drop back to below the box low, a 33% chance that it might go up at least the same length as the box and another 33% chance that it might go double that distance. That’s Setup 1 Trading Edge. 2:1 Reward to Risk with 66% win rate (including BE trades)
Yet I don’t want to take this setup. Because I don’t like the odds that the D1 chart shows me. Why? The D1 chart is showing a Down Trend but it also show that it could be ending and reversing to upside. I might be wrong, I’ll soon find out. This is TRADING.
Below we have D1 Chart of EUR/NZD, as you can see, its going down. So its Not very high probability for me to take the Long on H1.
|EUR/NZD D1 Trending down. But notice that sharp strong bull candle. That could be A up, followed by the zig zag B down and we could now see a C up. (The C up would be 5 up on H1)|
Below we see GBP/NZD creating a Setup 2 long signal.
Below we have GBP/NZD H4 Chart, A nice Cherry Signal Long
Finally we have below The D1 Chart. This is Clearly not going up, its going sideways and its boxed. I don’t fancy such charts.